donderdag 20 maart 2014

Type I and Type II errors

Type I: Ho true -- accept Ha / reject Ho -- try to limit this through minimizing the standard errors on your estimates, estimates should be efficient

Type II: Ha true -- reject Ha / accept Ho -- harder to know, estimates should be more consistent

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors


dinsdag 4 maart 2014

Joseph E Stiglitz

Academic board progressive economist alliance, and also a Noble Prize winner.

Joe Stiglitz is a very political economist, a rare species nowadays. He started his research in economics with the study of inequality, but also contributed to the economics of market failures and information asymmetry.

I like his explanation of monopoly power of small firms. He showed that even if the market appears to be quite competitive and easy to enter, we may have an implicit kartel in, for instance, grocery stores. Every firm owner knows that if the customer is in the shop, he will not bother and run to the next for a very small price increase. He also knows the next grocer thinks the same, so a price increase is harmless for his business and monopoly profits can be made. This game goes on and distorts markets or creates and inflationary bias. It's fascinating.

Here's a great interview with Joe Stiglitz on the Ezra Klein show: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/vox/the-ezra-klein-show/e/joseph-stiglitz-on-broken-markets-bad-trade-deals-and-basic-48035656?autoplay=true. (he criticizes the universal basic income in this bite)

Shapiro, C & Stiglitz JE (1984) Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device, AER 74