The best joke in decades is the Reinhart-Rogoff paper in the American Economic Review 2010 special issue (this). Not so much because they messed up stats - everybody does - but because they wouldn't leave their stance. No doubt the couple is more than twice as smart as I am, maybe that's why it's hard to admit. Here's a summary, and this is the Herndon Ash Pollin revelation paper.
I quote some guy called Dennis Schminke on the Wall Street Journal online:
"I spent 29 years of a 38-year career with a major US corporation performing operational and financial analyses. Much of that time included review of the work of peers and subordinates. When PC's and spreadsheets first came along in the early 1980's, the trouble began. My experience...if it's on a spreadsheet, there is a good chance there are errors, especially in the hands of inexperienced or careless users. And all we did with our error is cost our company money. We did not blow up the economy or cause trillion$ to be spent chasing an environmental rabbit."
Anyway, it seems that the US does far worse than thought, if you check alternative stats.
Posts tonen met het label macro economics. Alle posts tonen
Posts tonen met het label macro economics. Alle posts tonen
maandag 6 mei 2013
donderdag 27 augustus 2009
Bruto Binnenlands Product (BBP)
Eng. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Bron: EUROSTAT
Onderverdelingen:BB
Real GDP growth rate (EUROSTAT)
Growth rate of GDP volume - percentage change on previous year
Short Description: Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation.
The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes. For measuring the growth rate of GDP in terms of volumes, the GDP at current prices are valued in the prices of the previous year and the thus computed volume changes are imposed on the level of a reference year; this is called a chain-linked series. Accordingly, price movements will not inflate the growth rate.
Als ik op basis hiervan een formule zou opstellen, wordt het deze:
Reële BBP-groei (t) = ( BBPt / PPt-1 ) / ( BBPt-1 / PPt-1 )
... maar ze is mis
Bron: EUROSTAT
Onderverdelingen:BB
- BBP aan factorkosten (factor costs): abstractie van belastingen en subsidies
- BBP aan marktprijzen (market prices)
- BBP aan lopende prijzen (current prices)
- BBP aan vaste prijzen (in volumes)
Real GDP growth rate (EUROSTAT)
Growth rate of GDP volume - percentage change on previous year
Short Description: Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation.
The calculation of the annual growth rate of GDP volume is intended to allow comparisons of the dynamics of economic development both over time and between economies of different sizes. For measuring the growth rate of GDP in terms of volumes, the GDP at current prices are valued in the prices of the previous year and the thus computed volume changes are imposed on the level of a reference year; this is called a chain-linked series. Accordingly, price movements will not inflate the growth rate.
Als ik op basis hiervan een formule zou opstellen, wordt het deze:
Reële BBP-groei (t) = ( BBPt / PPt-1 ) / ( BBPt-1 / PPt-1 )
... maar ze is mis
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