maandag 6 mei 2013

Reinhart-Rogoff

The best joke in decades is the Reinhart-Rogoff paper in the American Economic Review 2010 special issue (this). Not so much because they messed up stats - everybody does - but because they wouldn't leave their stance. No doubt the couple is more than twice as smart as I am, maybe that's why it's hard to admit. Here's a summary, and this is the Herndon Ash Pollin revelation paper.

I quote some guy called Dennis Schminke on the Wall Street Journal online:

"I spent 29 years of a 38-year career with a major US corporation performing operational and financial analyses. Much of that time included review of the work of peers and subordinates. When PC's and spreadsheets first came along in the early 1980's, the trouble began. My experience...if it's on a spreadsheet, there is a good chance there are errors, especially in the hands of inexperienced or careless users. And all we did with our error is cost our company money. We did not blow up the economy or cause trillion$ to be spent chasing an environmental rabbit."

Anyway, it seems that the US does far worse than thought, if you check alternative stats